When it comes to bold assertions regarding future products, no one can beat or succeed the CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk. He is the leader of pledging that pioneering technology is “coming soon,” but Tesla has missed its fair share of these timelines.
A few instances consist of autonomous cars set to arrive within two years that he committed back in 2016, 1 million robotaxis on the road, he promised this to come by 2020, and numerous deferred vehicle launches such as the Roadster, Semi, and Cybertruck.
Instead of planning more relevant deadlines for these projects, Tesla’s CEO frequently reiterates his claims.
That is precisely what was done this week by the wealthiest man in the world when he was questioned about Level 4 self-driving during a podcast interview. “It’s looking quite likely it will be next year,” Musk responded.
Classing as Tesla hasn’t even completed Level 3 self-driving yet, we believe this assertion skeptical at best.
When do you think Tesla will solve Level 4 FSD? – @lexfridman
— Dave Lee (@heydave7) December 28, 2021
Tesla Model S Equipped With Full Self Driving Software
Musk’s promises appear to be based on a notion only instead of definite data. During the interview, he explains how the intrusions per million miles have been “dropping rapidly,” and following this trend, the probability of an accident in a Tesla Model S upskilled with Full Self Driving software will be less than that of “the average human.”
We take multiple problems with Musk’s assertions, beginning with the question of what defines an “average human” driver. There have already been several crashes and near-crashes using FSD, so maybe it doesn’t turn out to be better than the “average” driver.
Our second problem copes with defining the 5 levels of autonomous driving. As of now, Tesla is just on Level 2, where the vehicle manages the steering and acceleration/deceleration, but yet needs interference from a driver.
Level 3 does not subsist outside of one Honda model in Japan, including the capability to make notified decisions such as passing a slower vehicle.
In the United States, no vehicle sold currently includes Level 3, so we are uncertain that Tesla will breeze past this phase with zero hiccups.
Tesla Admitted It’s Still Too Far From Achieving the Goal of No Steering Wheel or Human Controls
A Level 4 car majorly drives on its own and needs a very small intrusion from a driver. However, Tesla FSD appears like Level 4 on the outside, it needs a lot of rectifications from drivers to ever be regarded as advanced.
Additionally, if FSD is designated as Level 4 officially by Tesla, it would have to undergo even more examination from regulators.
Despite initially promising Level 5 self-driving last year, which contains a car with no steering wheel or human controls at all, Tesla has accepted it is yet too far away from accomplishing this objective.
Based on independent tests of Tesla’s FSD software, we are not certain if there’s any way Musk keeps this promise regarding L4 in 2022.