Hurricane Lan Latest Passage: Hurricane and storm surge warnings have been issued for several areas of the Tampa Bay area as a result of Hurricane Ian’s continued rapid intensification. With winds reaching 105 mph, the storm has intensified into a category 2 hurricane.
It’s anticipated to start getting stronger once the storm has passed over Cuba. Early on Monday, Ian became a hurricane. It quickly intensified as it swept across Cuba and the Caribbean Sea. A large portion of Florida is still within the projected cone, and as forecasting gets better, the storm is moving closer to Tampa Bay.
The majority of Florida’s west coast may see a life-threatening storm surge, according to the National Hurricane Center. The area at greatest risk is between Fort Myers and the Tampa Bay region.
People in low-lying areas had already been given the order to evacuate. It is anticipated that Tuesday will start with heavy rain over the Florida Keys before moving north along the coast.
According to NHC, Central Florida is also anticipated to see major, protracted river flooding. On Florida’s west coast, from north of Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, a hurricane watch has been issued. For Pinellas County and the coastal regions of Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota counties, a storm surge watch is in place.
Can Hurricane Lan’s Track Still Shift?
On Monday morning, meteorologists warned that time was “running out” for Hurricane Ian to miss our region. The possibilities decreased even further after the NHC’s 11 a.m. bulletin, which confirmed earlier updates.
“In the short-term prediction, there have been very few times, especially in the last decade or two, where the cone in a 24-hour and 36-hour forecast has been incorrect, which is going to put this as a Category 3 or 4 storm, somewhere west of the Keys,” Osterberg added.
Residents will experience higher wind speeds the closer it gets to Florida’s west coast. Osterberg asserted that the majority of the affected areas would see tropical storm-force winds. “The future? The trajectory may change, but the models are currently essentially convergent on Florida’s west coast in general.”
A track inaccuracy exists that could range from 75 to 100 miles. A further 75–100 miles on either side of that line, therefore, significantly alters our forecast said, Osterberg. However, it still has effects the precise amount is still unknown.
How Will the Tampa Bay Area be Impacted, Based on the Current Track?
Storm surges and severe floods should be anticipated by residents. Osterberg said, “We’re still going to have that storm surge kind of riding up, and you know how sensitive the west coast of Florida is to storm surge. It doesn’t even matter whether it even goes that eastern path or that western one.”
It is anticipated that the storm will weaken when it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, which would make matters worse for places at risk of flooding. Osterberg continued, “Unlike past storms that have passed through—Wilma, Charley, specifically—they came rushing across the state. “That won’t happen with this one.
We will be subjected to these winds for a day and a half or two days, even if they are barely tropical storm force. Not a short period. You won’t just experience this south wind for a few hours; you’ll experience it for a few days when the water pushes up Bayshore.”
Ian will be southwest of Tampa Bay between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, according to the prediction.
“It will take, what, 36 hours, and another 18 to move north? What I’m trying to say to you is that there will be several high tides and storm surges” explained Osterberg. We’re going to keep pulling in with that south wind and all of that moisture, so we’re going to have a tonne of rain.
While it could seem advantageous to watch Ian weaken as it gets closer to the coast, he pointed out that there could be a drawback. “The wind field will grow as the storm weakens in that way.
Do you also want to know about the weather in Chicago?
On Tuesday afternoon, a system with a history of producing severe thunderstorms made its way slowly across the Chicago area, packing gusty winds and prompting some watches and warnings before moving out of the site.
As a result, even while the wind speed is decreasing, you are still experiencing harmful winds Osterberg explained. Where the highest winds and storm surges occur will depend on the exact track.
“It’s expected to rain a lot. It won’t be easy for the water to wash back into the bay. Why? Due to the southerly breeze,” said Osterberg.
“Irma passed to our east, and the north wind we had caused the water in the bay to drain. Now that the storm is passing to our west and there is a south wind, all of the water is being blown into the bay. It is raining, yet the rain cannot escape because of the water that is resting in the harbor and going nowhere.”
Where is Hurricane Lan?
By Monday evening through Tuesday morning, Ian is anticipated to pass into western Cuba. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Ian would then develop over the southeast Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and later that day pass west of the Florida Keys. On Wednesday, it will get close to Florida’s west coast.
According to the NHC, Ian will become a major hurricane on Tuesday. Through midweek, the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula may experience flash floods and urban flooding, and later this week, significant rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida panhandle, and the southeast United States.
The one thing that we still have, is considerable distance between us and Ian, which means some additional track adjustments are likely. As bad as track looks, we are not at point where it’s an absolute lock. Best outcome is to somehow keep #Ian core offshore.
— Paul Dellegatto⚡️FOX (@PaulFox13) September 26, 2022
As of Monday morning, Hurricane Ian was situated in the Caribbean Sea, more than 430 miles from the western point of Cuba and roughly 160 miles south of Grand Cayman in the Cayman Islands.
TPA TO SUSPEND OPERATIONS: In preparation for Hurricane Ian, TPA will suspend all operations on Tuesday, September 27, at 5:00 p.m. The Airport will be closed to all visitors at that time. Read more: https://t.co/RbS1uKuXtf
— Tampa International Airport ✈️ (@FlyTPA) September 27, 2022
Ian was traveling northwest at 12 mph and had maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph. Forecasters reported that convection had flared up around Ian’s center in satellite photos, indicating that Ian is rapidly intensifying.
Final Thoughts
