Storm Subtropical Nicole Issues A Hurricane Warning For Florida East Coast

The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch for Florida’s east coast on Monday, extending from the Brevard-Volusia county line south to Hallandale Beach, and warning that Subtropical Storm Nicole may make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane late Wednesday or early Thursday.

The hurricane center reported Subtropical Storm Nicole was 415 miles east-northeast of the northwest Bahamas and was heading northwest at 8 mph as of its 10 p.m. EST update. Its greatest sustained winds, with stronger gusts, were 45 mph.

The NHC predicted that a turn toward the west or west-southwest would start on Tuesday and would last through early Thursday. On the predicted course, Nicole’s center will pass close to or over the northwest Bahamas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, move close to or over those islands on Wednesday, and then reach Florida’s east coast that night.

By Wednesday or Wednesday night, as it passes by or over the northwest Bahamas, Hurricane Nicole is expected to reach hurricane strength or be very close to it.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) also announced a tropical storm warning from Hallandale Beach northward along Florida’s east coast to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, at 10 p.m. in addition to the previously issued hurricane watch.

Storm Subtropical Nicole Issues A Hurricane Warning For Florida East Coast
Storm Subtropical Nicole Issues A Hurricane Warning For Florida East Coast

Although Nicole is anticipated to become a hurricane in the next 48 hours, the hurricane center said at 10 p.m. that there is typically some variability in the storm’s predicted intensity.

Forecasters stated that it will take some time for the cyclone to start strengthening because of its spreading structure and the neighboring dry mid-level air. However, it is anticipated that within 24 hours the system will at least start to develop an inner core structure and that by the time it approaches the northwest Bahamas and the Florida peninsula, it will be close to or at hurricane intensity.

For 34 counties, including the entirety of Central Florida, that may be in the storm’s path, Governor Ron DeSantis declared a State of Emergency.

In a news release, DeSantis said, “While it does not currently look like this storm will become significantly stronger, I urge all Floridians to be ready and to heed announcements from local disaster management professionals.” As the hurricane approaches Florida, “We will continue to watch the track and power of this storm.”

The following counties are listed in alphabetical order: Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, DeSoto, Duval, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole

Inland Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Volusia, Lake, Polk, Sumter, and Marion counties are all under tropical storm watches, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

The NWS Melbourne office stated in its weather discussion that “… [Nicole’s] consequences are likely across east Central Florida, regardless of final track or intensity.” Preparations must be finished before Wednesday since the situation will get much worse by Wednesday afternoon. Make sure to keep up with any Watches or Warnings and the most recent forecast. It is especially urged that those still suffering from Hurricane Ian’s devastation prepare and keep an eye on the weather.

Storm Subtropical Nicole Issues A Hurricane Warning For Florida East Coast
Storm Subtropical Nicole Issues A Hurricane Warning For Florida East Coast

According to the five-day forecast, it could make landfall between Miami and Brevard County, move northwest across the state south of Orlando on Thursday, change course while still inland on Friday, and then be dragged back to the north up through the state’s center and into the southern U.S.

According to the NHC, a subtropical cyclone is a low-pressure system with a closed surface wind circulation centered on a well-defined center and some deep convection, much like a tropical storm. However, unlike the compact cores of tropical storms, its winds will be more dispersed and less symmetric, and its core will have cooler upper-level temperatures.

Subtropical systems get the majority of their energy from “baroclinic” sources, which means they mix with a nearby high or low-pressure system and trade off temperature and pressure to equalize, whereas tropical systems get most of their energy from warm waters that are sucked up through the center of the earth into the atmosphere.

The three-day cone of uncertainty has a landfall range from south of Miami up through Volusia County with potential landfall just north of West Palm Beach in Martin County. However, since it has not yet developed into a tropical system, its path and intensity are less predictable, according to the NHC.

Whatever the path, the risk of a hazardous storm surge, damaging winds, and significant rainfall exists within its reach.

According to Michael Brennan, acting deputy director of the NHC, “we could see the potential for higher-end impacts, dangerous storm surge, the potential for winds, strong tropical storm-force damaging winds… even up to hurricane-force potentially if this system does go on and become a hurricane, and again heavy rainfall that could track with or near the core of that storm if it goes on and develops those tropical characteristics.”

The Bahamas could currently experience storm surges that are 3 to 5 feet over normal, as well as 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated locations receiving up to 6 inches through Thursday.

The NHC predicted a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet along Florida’s coast from North Palm Beach north into Georgia, including the St. Johns River, and 2 to 4 feet south of North Palm down to Hallandale Beach and along the St. Johns River down to East Palatka.

Hurricane Ian in September caused extensive damage to Florida, flooding much of the state’s central region, particularly the area around the St. Johns River. The NWS warns that more rain from this system could stress water tables that are still falling as a result of the hurricane and increasing floods.

The NWS warned in its Monday morning forecast discussion that “dangerous marine conditions will continue to worsen as winds attempt to develop seas throughout the day today.” “These winds and increasing waves will make beach conditions dangerous later today and tonight, resulting in rough surf, life-threatening rip currents, and raising concerns about beach erosion.”

A hazard for tornadoes is forecast to grow into Wednesday and Wednesday night as the center approaches Florida’s east coast, according to the NWS, and peak winds in east Central Florida are anticipated to start Wednesday night and last into Thursday.

The storm’s passage might be accompanied by squalls that could cause wind gusts of over 50 to 60 mph in coastal communities and up to 35 to 50 mph well inland, according to the forecast. Additionally, “storm total rainfall accumulations are anticipated to reach 4-6 inches along the coast, even reaching the St. Johns River in Brevard County, 3-4 inches for much of the rest of the region, and 2-3 inches for northern Lake County and areas west of Florida’s Turnpike, with locally higher amounts possible.”

DeSantis stated earlier on Monday that state emergency officials are in contact with all 67 of the counties in the state to determine any potential gaps in resources and to implement strategies for the state to react swiftly and effectively to the system.

In a press statement, he stated, “I encourage all Floridians to be prepared and establish a plan in the case a storm affects Florida.”

According to the press release, Floridians should be aware of their location during hurricane season if they live in an evacuation zone, a low-lying, flood-prone neighborhood, a mobile home, or another risky structure. Additionally, homeowners must understand how well their houses can withstand wind and rain.

Volusia was one of the counties that suffered significant coastal damage from Ian, and emergency director Jim Judge said the system’s north and east quadrants pose a special hazard once more.

He stated, “We need to take this storm very seriously because it may lead to more coastline erosion, which may be terrible to our hurricane-affected beachfront houses. We’re also anticipating 4 to 8 inches of rain through Friday, which could result in flooding, as well as gusts equivalent to a tropical storm, which could result in widespread power outages.”

Emergency officials in Seminole County said they are ready for several inches of rain from Nicole this week, especially in regions where flood levels from Hurricane Ian have just started to subside.

Alan Harris, director of Seminole’s office of emergency management, said, “No one wants to hear that, but that is what it looks like as of today.” “Each forecast for us here has gotten a little worse.”

At this time, the St. Johns River is considered to be at a mild flood level. However, county authorities warned that rainfall from Nicole could cause Seminole to surge to moderate flood levels and drop as much as 7 to 8 inches of rain in certain places.

Harris added that the potential for a zigzag path as it passes over the state is a concern.

He declared, “A double whammy, I guess, is probably a possibility.” “In Seminole County, this has happened previously — in 2008.” I’m not predicting that this will be Tropical Storm Fay, but the storm’s path is quite similar to that of Fay, which passed over us before doing a U-turn and returning to do so. This appears to be pretty comparable to that.

Final Lines

Hurricane Subtropical Early on Monday, Nicole developed east of the Bahamas. This week, this storm will move near the Southeast coast of the United States and the Bahamas. When Nicole approaches Florida, it could be a powerful tropical storm or even a hurricane.

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