CDC sharply drops estimate of Omicron prevalence in U.S.

CDC sharply drops estimate of Omicron prevalence in U.S.

The Omicron Variant has been full of surprises. With its initial discovery, the mutation quickly became a variant of concern among the world, with people fearing that the pandemic could flare again. Just when the world was resuming its normal operations, the news of another possibly deadlier variant was pretty dishevelling. Soon after, further research revealed that the virus’s mutation with the common cold made it highly transmissible but as more data was collected the virus was found to cause less severe symptoms when compared to the previous Delta variant.

The CDC new model shows a rapid decline in the proportion of Omicron cases:

 The forecast by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention previously estimated 95% of cases to be attributed to Omicron in the future. Their recent revised report however shows only 22.5% of cases as a result of Omicron. The main reason behind the difference is the estimated speed with which Omicron was supposed to spread. The public health agency remarked that the last week’s chart predicted interval accounted for the rapid spread of Omicron but as the data was received, it revealed a lesser number of Omicron related infections. The White House hasn’t made any comments on the disparity. 

The new model by CDC shows a shorter interval which ranges from 41.4% to 74%. The models also revealed that a larger portion of the infections were caused by the Delta Variant.

CDC sharply drops estimate of Omicron prevalence in U.S.

Does the reduction mean hospitalisation is still because of Delta?

In a tweet, the Former FDA Commissioner revealed that if we keep the previous estimate aside and why there was an apparent disparity, it could mean that the delta variant is currently responsible for the majority of hospitalisations. Former US surgeon General Jerome Adams was not happy with CDC’s decision to reduce the quarantine duration from 10 to 5 days. He was rather frustrated in his tweet and exclaimed to his shock that his previous admiration for the agency aside, there has come a day where he would suggest people do not abide by their guidance to isolate for such lesser days. 

Could current records be influenced by the holiday season?

CDC spokesperson, Jasmine Reed, also stressed that even with the decrease shown by predictions, it is still  important to realise that the number of covid cases are steadily rising by the day. As the holiday season sees more travel there is a risk of greater transmission of the virus. A current record reveals that America is reporting 206,000 infections daily. She also remarked that the number of cases reported will become more stable once the holidays are over and the current record could be an overestimate due to the closure of testing facilities during the weekend.

How can we prevent further spread of the virus?

With stricter enforcement of regulations and Biden’s vaccine mandate, there is a chance that proper adherence could aid in faster mitigation of these variants and also prevent any further mutations from originating. Although Omicron has thankfully proved to be not as severely dangerous as Delta, it’s high transmissibility is still a major concern and this could overburden hospitals and healthcare staff. Let’s be responsible during the holidays and protect our family and loved ones diligently. Get vaccinated at the earliest and wear masks in large gatherings. Stay safe everyone!

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