Lee County had 195 births and 387 deaths in the 12 months that ended June 30, 2025, according to the latest Census Bureau county estimates. That is 192 more deaths than births, and it is not new. Between the state health department’s yearly tables and the Census estimates, every full year since 2010 shows more deaths than births.
Cardinal News reported in April that Virginia’s seven coalfield counties together had 923 more deaths than births in the same estimate year. By The Lee Daily Register’s reading of the Census file, Lee’s share of that gap was 192, about a fifth.
The Register used two sources. The Virginia Department of Health counts births and deaths by residence and calendar year, but as of Nov. 6 its statistical reports page lists 2020 as the latest year for county births and deaths tables. The Census estimates run July 1 to June 30 and reach 2025, so the two are not joined into one series below.
The gap grew through the 2010s
| Year | Births | Deaths | Births minus deaths | Birth rate | Death rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 250 | 290 | −40 | 9.8 | 11.3 |
| 2013 | 222 | 304 | −82 | 8.8 | 12.1 |
| 2016 | 221 | 264 | −43 | 9.1 | 10.9 |
| 2019 | 204 | 322 | −118 | 8.7 | 13.7 |
| 2020 | 215 | 377 | −162 | 9.3 | 16.2 |
Deaths outnumbered births in all 11 years from 2010 through 2020, by as few as 3 in 2012 and as many as 162 in 2020. Births to Lee residents fell about 18% from 2010 to 2019, from 250 to 204, while deaths rose from 290 to 322. The 2020 gap fell in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, but VDH’s county table does not give causes.
One figure stands out. The 2015 table lists 233 resident deaths, well below 313 in 2014 and 264 in 2016. The Register found no explanation and used the numbers as published. VDH bases its rates on a projected population.
Roughly two deaths for every birth since 2020
| 12 months ending June 30 | Births | Deaths | Natural change | Net migration | Population change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 194 | 422 | −228 | +117 | −94 |
| 2022 | 154 | 407 | −253 | +107 | −163 |
| 2023 | 197 | 386 | −189 | +110 | −80 |
| 2024 | 203 | 389 | −186 | +193 | +4 |
| 2025 | 195 | 387 | −192 | +55 | −135 |
Births ran from 154 to 203 a year and deaths from 386 to 422, or 1.9 to 2.6 deaths for each birth. Net migration, meaning people moving in minus people moving out, was positive every year, which is why 2024 was the only one of the five years in which the county’s estimated population did not fall. In the latest year it dropped to 55 (49 domestic, 6 international), down from 193.
How much of the decline is deaths, and how much is moving?
This is the Register’s own calculation from the Census file. Adding the yearly components from the April 1, 2020 census to July 1, 2025, Lee County’s natural decrease totals 1,071 people and net migration adds 540. The population fell by 531, or 2.4%, from 22,173 to 21,642. Migration offset about half of the natural loss, and without it the decline would have been about twice as large.
| April 2020 to July 2025 | Natural change | Net migration | Total change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lee County | −1,071 (−4.8%) | +540 (+2.4%) | −531 (−2.4%) |
| Scott County | −1,149 (−5.3%) | +769 (+3.6%) | −374 (−1.7%) |
| Wise County | −1,329 (−3.7%) | +39 (+0.1%) | −1,302 (−3.6%) |
| Virginia | +68,140 (+0.8%) | +178,516 (+2.1%) | +248,688 (+2.9%) |
Scott shows the same pattern with somewhat more migration. In Wise, migration was close to zero, so nearly all its loss came from deaths outnumbering births. Per 1,000 residents in 2025, the file lists Lee at 9.0 births and 17.8 deaths, against 8.6 and 19.1 in Scott, 9.2 and 15.5 in Wise, and 10.4 and 8.8 statewide.
The split looked different a decade earlier. The Bureau’s older estimates for the ten years to June 2020 put Lee’s natural decrease at 573 and net migration at −1,801, out of an estimated loss of 2,368. On those numbers, about three-quarters of that decade’s decline came from people leaving. Treat that split as approximate: the same release put Lee’s July 1, 2020 population at 23,238, which is 1,065 above the April 2020 census count, and VDH’s tables show a larger natural decrease for 2011 through 2020, 763.
Fewer women of childbearing age, more residents over 65
The Census Bureau’s age file points to the structure behind the gap. By the Register’s calculation, Lee had about 59.6 births for every 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 in the latest year (195 births, 3,274 women). That is higher than Scott at 54.5, Wise at 55.8 and Virginia at 51.7. The county has fewer births because it has fewer women in those ages, down from 3,367 in April 2020, and its under-5 population fell 8.7% over the period, from 1,050 to 959. The measure is rough: births cover July to June, and the population count is for July 1.
At the other end, 5,005 Lee residents, or 23.1%, were 65 or older in 2025, compared with 18.4% statewide and 21.6% in Lee in April 2020.
What the numbers do not explain
Neither source says why people died. VDH’s chronic disease deaths dashboard lists an age-adjusted heart disease death rate of 226.2 per 100,000 in Lee in 2024, against 148.5 for Virginia. The dashboard covers chronic diseases only, and VDH’s 2020 table of selected causes of death is statewide, not by county. Single-year rates for a county this size swing, too.
The five-year figures above are sums of the Census file’s yearly components. All numbers are as of Nov. 6, and the Bureau and VDH can revise them.
