With the 2021 MLB season nearing its final quarter, the playoff picture around the league is starting to fall into place. Many of the pre-season favorites are right where they belong atop the National and American leagues respectively, with the defending world series winners Los Angeles Dodgers sitting in second place in the NL West and poised for another playoff run.
The losses of all-stars Mookie Betts and Justin Turner to injury are a concern for the defending champions, but the team was aggressive in the trade window, acquiring three-time Cy Young award-winning pitcher Max Scherzer, and all-star shortstop Trea Turner from the Washington Nationals to bolster their roster ahead of the postseason.
The depth available for manager Dave Roberts should allow the Dodgers to overcome even the loss of an MVP caliber player in Betts, and despite being without his immense talent at right-field, LA is still favored to defend their world series crown according to the mlb odds.
Baseball betting is very appealing to gamblers with a 162 game season offering many chances to win and the statistical element involved aligning well with those that are very research-focused, and there are some key strategies that can be employed in order to maximize profit for bettors. Underdog betting is one of the most popular betting strategies for those wagering money on baseball due to the fact that underdogs win more in baseball than in any other sport.
This is because there are so many games in the season and the gap between the top and bottom teams in the MLB is much narrower than in other sports leagues. Big money underdogs, therefore, offer great value as bettors only have to hit around 44% on Moneyline bets in order to break even, meaning that even hitting as low as 47% will turn big profits. Leading on from this, it is usually prudent to avoid staking money on big favorites on Moneyline bets as oddsmakers know that casual bettors love to bet on favourites and thus will inflate their price accordingly as people will bet on them anyways.
Regular season favorites priced at -150 or higher have won at a 63% tick since 2005 which may sound great for bettors, but winnings on favorites are small, whilst losses are large, so one would lose money betting on these heavy favorites every game.
Another excellent strategy for MLB bettors is to research pitcher trends and each team’s pitching lineups because pitchers have an enormous impact on the lines of games. There are plenty of statistics available that give bettors great insight into when different pitchers perform well and when they struggle, for example, the splits statistic will show if pitchers are better in day games or at night or at home versus away from home, or even which stadiums they do well in.
Being aware of which pitcher is starting and who is expected to close the game out is vital when betting on the outcome of games or on the total as one can pick up on trends that develop as the season goes on. In 2019, Dodgers pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu was lights out on the mound at Dodger Stadium, with a 10-1 record and an impressive 1.93 ERA, but on the road, he struggled and was only 4-4 as a starter with an ERA of 2.72. It is crucial to know these sorts of statistics as a bettor so as to avoid big losses and develop an idea of when it is smart to bet on different teams based on who is pitching. This stands for Moneyline bets, run line bets, total bets, and first five innings line bets, which are the most common baseball bets available to gamblers.
These situational-type statistics are available for position players too, and it can be a big help when wanting to bet on your team to study these details. Dodgers fans betting on their team may hope for Mookie Betts or Justin Turner to hit a home run or an RBI single on a particular night, but they would need to take into account which ballpark the game is in, who the other team’s starting pitcher is, and what kind of hitting streak these players on, amongst other important statistics, before placing an over bet on the total for example.
If the Dodgers are playing the Mets and Jacob DeGrom is on the mound to start the game, it might not be prudent to bet on the over for a totals bet or the Dodgers run line. However, if they catch the Mets on a night when DeGrom is sitting and the starter struggles at Dodger stadium and in evening games historically, then taking the over on the total and the Dodgers plus 2 runs might be a worthy bet.
Baseball betting can be very complex and it is prudent to put the time into studying statistics, but if one follows simple rules and tips like betting underdogs and avoiding heavy favorites on Moneyline bets, it can become straightforward to turn a profit. The information is readily available to bettors of all levels and interests, and those that take the time to study small things like what time of day a pitcher usually performs better at can capitalize on betting markets available such as run totals and first five innings lines.
