Editor’s note: The original March 2023 version of this article was lost. The Lee Daily Register rebuilt it in October 2026 from the report itself and the sources cited below, and added what happened afterward. The original version also claimed Texas generally leads in education spending; the report does not say that, so it has been left out.
Each class of eighth graders in Texas could forgo roughly $104 billion in future earnings because too few students are prepared for what comes after high school. That is the central estimate in “The State of Readiness: Are Texas students prepared for life after high school?”, a report released March 21 by the policy group Texas 2036 and the George W. Bush Institute.
Low-income students, who make up 60.7% of the state’s student population, would bear $67 billion of that loss, according to the full report.
The numbers behind the warning
The report draws mainly on 2022 state test results and on state data that follows eighth graders through high school and beyond. Among its findings:
- Only 22% of Texas eighth graders earn a postsecondary degree or credential within six years of finishing high school.
- 19% of eighth graders do not graduate from a Texas public high school. Among economically disadvantaged students, the figure is 23%.
- 60% of students are not on grade level in math, and 48% are not on grade level in reading.
- Only 38% of eighth graders were on grade level in math in 2022.
- 93% of students who are behind in third grade are still behind by fifth grade.
The authors say readiness gaps start early and that students rarely catch up. In the 2021-22 school year, no grade level was more than 60% ready for the next grade. Results were lower for children in poverty and for Black and Hispanic students.
Why the authors say it matters for jobs
The report projects that more than 70% of Texas jobs will require a postsecondary credential by 2036, the state’s bicentennial. It also says people who move to Texas hold nearly twice as many bachelor’s degrees as the state’s native workforce, and the authors argue that young Texans risk being left behind in their own job market. Taxpayers put more than $70 billion a year into public schools, the authors note.
Parents share the concern. In a 2022 Texas 2036 survey, 65% of Texas parents said they were worried about whether their child is prepared for life after high school, the group said in its announcement of the report.
“We need to double down on data-driven reforms,” said Margaret Spellings, Texas 2036’s president and CEO and a former U.S. education secretary.
What the report asks lawmakers to do
The report says lawmakers were being asked during the 2023 session to roll back how Texas measures student readiness, and it argues against doing so. Its recommendations are to keep measuring every student’s performance and holding districts accountable, to invest in workforce data through the state’s Tri-Agency Workforce Initiative, and to make sure students labeled college, career or military ready are actually prepared.
What happened next
National results released Jan. 29, 2025, showed further slippage. Texas eighth graders’ math scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress fell 4 points from 2022, and their reading scores fell 3 points, The Texas Tribune reported. Texas 2036 said eighth-grade reading had reached the lowest level in the exam’s history, and that the state’s eighth-grade math ranking had dropped to 34th.
The state test the report relied on is also being replaced. In September 2025, Gov. Greg Abbott signed House Bill 8, which swaps the STAAR exam for three shorter tests given at the beginning, middle and end of the school year, starting in 2027-28, KUT and The Texas Tribune reported.
